Fish
513, Spring 2002
Ray
Hilborn, Mary Ruckleshaus, and Jeff Richey
Wednesdays,
5-6:50, FSH 107
2
credits, CR/NC
SLN
8717
http://www.cev.washington.edu/lc/CLSALMOD/
The survival of
salmon in Puget Sound depends on the habitat, and currently hundreds of
millions of dollars are being spent in restoring habitat. The overall purpose of this course is to
explore modeling tools to evaluate the consequences of habitat change on
salmon, with a particular emphasis on salmon restoration activities. We will explore existing models of
hydrology, habitat and salmon and over the course of the spring quarter will
integrate the components of many of these models into a unified modeling
framework. Speakers from agencies and
academic units will present existing modeling approaches in the weekly
meetings. Programming staff from the
Puget Sound Regional Synthesis Model (PRISM) will help develop a prototype
model. Students will participate in
helping develop model components, in evaluating data and GIS systems, or in
exploring how the model could be used in regional planning processes.
Specific topics
to be addressed include: Spatial and physical models of river networks and
processes across the landscape; Distribution, status and trends of salmon;
Linking salmon to freshwater habitat characteristics; Linking salmon to
estuarine habitat characteristics; Geographic and temporal variability in
habitats and salmon; Generating scenarios of salmon recovery; Restoration and protection
strategies, what are they and how well are they working?
The series is open not only to students but we encourage practitioners from tribes, regional and state governments to participate.. The format is intended to be interactive, with speakers and participants establishing a continuing working dialogue, assimilated into a progressive learning and testing environment. The model development will serve primarily as a focus for the dialog, with us repeatedly asking “how can we best evaluate the consequences of alternative restoration alternatives.” The model development will take place in parallel with the weekly seminars, with occasional progress reports back to the Wednesday sessions. Seminar 10 will be devoted primarily to preliminary model results.
Seminar 1. April 3. Topic Overview and Introduction.
The session goals are to: 1) present the goals, procedures, and context of the series, including the use of “assimilating” models and the generation of scenarios of actions that are sufficient or necessary for viability, 2) review and scope the basic science and management questions that need to be or should be addressed for ESA planning, 3) review the first principles of salmon biology, the factors limiting recovery, and existing approaches for estimating links between habitat and salmon, and 4) identify the key questions subsequent speakers might to address and begin to outline the boundaries of scenarios that might be explored.
Lead Speakers: Ray Hilborn
(UW), Mary Ruckleshaus (NMFS), Jeff Richey (UW)
Seminar 2. April 10. Spatial and Physical Models of River Networks and Processes across the Landscape.
The session goals are to 1) consider alternative modeling strategies, detailed process versus aggregate models, and spatially-explicit approaches to salmon habitat modeling, 2) identify key spatial or physical features of salmon habitat as landscape-scale patterns that are/are not adequately addressed in existing approaches; which need to be included in overall scheme(s), and which can be willfully neglected, and 3) produce required in-stream flow from hydrologic models.
Lead Speakers: Thomas
Quinn (UW), Miles Logsdon (UW), Pascal Storck (UW)
Seminar 3. April 17. Distribution,
Status and Trends of Salmon.
The
session goals are to 1) gain appreciation for complexity of estimating salmon
population parameters and where data limits are, 2) discuss relevant metrics to
use for quantifying salmon status and linking to habitat features, and 3) estimate spawner returns,
juvenile out-migrants, and productivity of salmon throughout the life cycle.
Lead Speakers: Kit Rawson
(Tulalip Tribe), Correigh Greene (NMFS)
Seminar 4. April 24. Linking
salmon to freshwater habitat characteristics.
The
session goals are to 1) identify the important features of freshwater habitat
to include in models, including the relationship between salmon population status and
freshwater habitat quantity or quality; e.g., the effects of habitat structure,
temperature and flow regimes, wood on salmon at different life stages, and 2) discuss bounds for scenarios for these
features.
Lead Speakers: George Pess (NMFS), Ashley Steel (NMFS)
Seminar 5. May 1. Geographic and Temporal Variability in
Habitats and Salmon.
The
session goals are to 1) identify spatial and temporal scales of biological
significance for salmon population and habitat dynamics, across freshwater and
estuarine/marine environments, and 2) consider how to include this information
in scenarios.
Lead Speakers: Peter Bisson
(USFS), Robert Bilby (Weyerhaeuser)
Seminar 6.
May 8. Linking salmon to
nearshore and estuarine habitat characteristics. The session goals are to
identify important features of estuarine/marine habitat to include in models,
including the relationship between salmon population status and
estuarine/marine habitat quantity or quality; e.g., effects of estuarine and
nearshore habitat attributes on salmon at different life stages, and 2) discuss bounds for scenarios for these
features.
Lead Speakers: Charles
Simenstad (UW), Kurt Fresh (WDF&W)
Seminar 7. May 15. Restoration and Protection Strategies, what are they and how well are they working?
The session goals are to 1) understand what useful model outputs might be—considering the potential array of end-users., and 2) review what habitat-related actions are being implemented, and how are their impacts being monitored (or not).
Seminar 8. May 22. Generating Scenarios of Salmon Recovery.
The
session goals are to 1) review the concept of “scenarios,” discuss analytical and decision
approaches to scenarios analysis for identifying actions and predicting their
effects on the status of salmon populations, and 2) focus specifically on how
habitat is analyzed in scenarios.
Seminar 9. May 29. Generating Scenarios of Salmon Recovery.
The
session goals are to determine to what extent and how other factors, such as hatcheries,
ocean conditions, and harvest, need to be included in the scenarios.
Lead Speakers: Michelle McClure (NMFS), Pete Lawson
(NMFS), Libby Logerwell (NMFS)